Rational Choice

[Homer]

Paidion,

I do not know where this is headed but I think Box A is the only rational choice, but fear of loss (at most $100), for many people, outweighs the hope of a far greater gain.

[selah]

Paidion wrote

...These electrodes transmit brain waves into the computer...You are...given the following true information before making your choice. The operator has gotten a prediction from the computer after your brain waves were analyzed. If the computer predicted that you would open both boxes, then the operator placed a hundred dollars in Box A, and a hundred dollars Box B. But if the computer predicted that you would open only Box A, then the operator placed ten thousand dollars in Box A and nothing in Box B. The experiment has already been done with 500 other people, and the computer predicted correctly what the participant chose in all 500 cases...

I am curious to know why no one other than me has mentioned the predictable computer, since it correctly analyzed 500 times out of 500 cases, then wouldn't it be rational to consider what you think it might predict? Or are we to conclude that it predicted 100% accuracy based on other data---not brain waves... hummm...

[dean198]

Paidion wrote

...These electrodes transmit brain waves into the computer...You are...given the following true information before making your choice. The operator has gotten a prediction from the computer after your brain waves were analyzed. If the computer predicted that you would open both boxes, then the operator placed a hundred dollars in Box A, and a hundred dollars Box B. But if the computer predicted that you would open only Box A, then the operator placed ten thousand dollars in Box A and nothing in Box B. The experiment has already been done with 500 other people, and the computer predicted correctly what the participant chose in all 500 cases...

I am curious to know why no one other than me has mentioned the predictable computer, since it correctly analyzed 500 times out of 500 cases, then wouldn't it be rational to consider what you think it might predict? Or are we to conclude that it predicted 100% accuracy based on other data---not brain waves... hummm...

I mentioned the track record of the computer. But I bet it predicts that everyone will open both boxes. Those who were only going to open Box A found only a hundred dollars in it, and despite their original intentions, they then went ahead and opened the second box.

[Douglas]

I asked 26 co-workers of mine today and got 13 box A only and 13 both boxes. Very interesting. Now how is this analyzed Padion?

[Paidion]

Box A only: 5
Both Boxes: 4

Amazing the even split among your co-workers, Douglas. I would also be interested in knowing whether each of your co-workers all felt very certain that his/her choice was the only rational one.

I'd like to see just a few more results before casting my own vote, and explaining why I voted that way. Please be patient for a little longer.

[selah]

Amazing the even split among your co-workers, Douglas. I would also be interested in knowing whether each of your co-workers all felt very certain that his/her choice was the only rational one.

I am NOT certain that my choice is rational (or right). I've looked at the instructions over and over and still maintain my choice but then question myself wondering, 'am I not considering something?' No matter how the survey is analyzed, I make this self observation and admit it.

...but then I re-read your quote and note, "the only rational one" and think that perhaps there may be more than one rational choice and you're wondering if people think their choice is "the only rational one." If there are more than one rational choices, then I would guess the difference depends upon motive. Someone mentioned motivation by gaining money; I mentioned motivated by curiousity; someone else mentioned out-witting the computer...okay, I've been told that I think too much.

[schoel]

Box A only: 6
Both Boxes: 4

Do I have to pay taxes on the amount?
If so, I'd rather have the smallest amount, based on the current political environment...


Actually, I'm following along with Homer's reasoning for the potential payoff.

[Paidion]

Box A only: 6
Both Boxes:5

Okay, I have made my rational choice! I chose both boxes.

Why? Because the money has already been placed in the boxes. The choice I make will not cause that money to change in any way. The computer's prediction is totally irrelevant to making the rational choice.

By choosing both boxes, there is no risk whatever

1. If the computer correctly predicted my choice, I get $200
2. If the computer incorrectly predicted my choice, I get $10,000

However, If I had chosen Box A only then,

1. If the computer incorrectly predicted my choice, I get $100
2. If the computer correctly predicted my choice, I get $10,000

So by choosing Box A only, I risk loosing $100

Clearly, the rational choice is "both boxes", whereas choosing Box A only is irrational.

As I see it, Michelle correctly analyzed the situation, and made the rational choice.

I had forgotten how this was originally set up. But I now wish that I had had the operator place $100 in box B no matter what the computer predicted. Then, by choosing Both Boxes, you would end up with $100 more than the person who chose only Box A --- no matter what the prediction.

[SteveF]

Well Paidion, my assessment is exactly the same but I'm sure we'll be hearing from "the other side". I thought Homer made the best argument for "A" only.

BTW...if the computer has been correct 100% of the time then I can guarantee you'll end up with $200. Although, before something is considered a scientific law you need to prove the result way more than 500 times. If the computer is wrong for the first time then all the better.....

[Paidion]

Well Paidion, my assessment is exactly the same...

If that is the case, then I should have recognized you. But I was thrown by your statement:

Since the computer has already made it's prediction, which I'm now privy to, I know what's in each box.

You seem to be saying that, prior to making your choice, you have knowledge of the computer's prediction and what is in each box. Perhaps that is not what you meant.