Is this, perhaps, a left-handed compliment ?kaufmannphillips wrote:
Accordingly, what is the "most likely" possibility concerning Jesus' resurrection? Do people get resurrected more often, or do people perpetrate frauds or become deluded or get caught up in fantasies more often?
steve wrote:
You made this point on another occasion, and I thought it to be less incisive than most of your arguments.
We have a difference of opinion on this point. I think one can gauge the likelihood of an event, based on frequency of occurrence. This estimation is not infallible, admittedly; and an estimation should be made in as literate and sensitive a way as possible in order to have greater significance as a speculative tool.steve wrote:
I believe you have made two errors here:
1. One cannot estimate the likelihood of any historical event having occurred by appeal to the question of how many times such a thing has or has not happened. How many times did Alexander conquer the Persians? How often does Rome fall? How many parallels are there in history to the bombing of Hiroshima? Yet we know that all these things happened, because people with first-or-second-hand knowledge have reported them. Frequency of occurrence has nothing to do with the likelihood of some historical event having taken place. The likelihood of a report being true hangs more heavily on the credibility of the sources.
Let us consider your examples:
(a) On one hand, we have the Alexandrine conquest of Achaemenid Persia and the fall of Rome. If one were to look at these events with too narrow a perspective, one might consider them to be singular events. But they should be considered generically: how often are empires conquered? The answer would be: frequently enough, and especially so in pre-modern history. For an empire to fall is noteworthy, but hardly surprising in light of recurring cycles in human history.
(b) Turning, then, to the bombing of Hiroshima, it might appear that we have a nearly unique event in this case. Except for two things.
On one hand, more than two thousand nuclear weapons have been detonated – and this within roughly sixty years’ proximity of Hiroshima. Such demonstrates the technological accomplishment behind Hiroshima to be far from unique. On the other hand, we have the human willingness to apply horrific and devastating force on a grand scale against other humans. This has been evidenced amply throughout human history. And so, neither the means nor the will behind an event like Hiroshima are all that unusual.
As such, your examples – though historically significant – are not terribly curious.
Beyond this – it would be an incomplete representation of the facts to say that “we know that all these things happened, because people with first-or-second-hand knowledge have reported them.” We are not wholly dependent upon human witnesses in such cases. We also have material evidences – e.g., archaeological finds and lingering radiation.
I fail to see how this is a false comparison or a difficult matter to correlate. It is simply a matter of comparing one probability with another. I can compare the likelihood of Vijay Singh hitting a hole-in-one with the likelihood of a bird soiling my car. They are different sorts of events, but the math provides the common denominator.steve wrote:
2. In comparing, on the one hand, the frequency with which men rise from the dead with the frequency with which men lie and perpetrate frauds, you propose a false comparison, because you compare the likelihood of God doing something (raising the dead) with that of men doing something (perpetrating fraud).
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Of course, an inquiry into God's actions does not correlate with any data about the behavior—fraudulent or otherwise—of human agents.
Well, here we have another difference of opinion. I consider that G-d’s potential activity may be estimated by his past activity, just like anyone else’s.steve wrote:
Yet no one can say how "likely" it is that God would do a certain thing that is not inconsistent with His character—even if the thing would be an event unique in history. Thus, He may raise a man from the dead, heal a leper, give sight to the blind, etc., at will, and no one could (without first establishing that God's will would be contrary to such actions) give any estimation at all as to how likely it would be for Him to do so.
It may be extremely likely or extremely unlikely that God would raise a particular dead man. It would depend upon what God wants to do—and that would be determined by the question of what may be consistent with His purposes.
I have never been skiing – despite the fact that within my lifespan I have had plenty of means and opportunity to do so. An observer may estimate, given these premises, that I am not terribly likely to go skiing this winter. Of course, their estimation may or may not be borne out in the developing facts of this coming winter. But it will probably hold quite reliably.
One may think likewise when it comes to G-d. G-d has never turned my shoes into solid gold, though one might suppose that he has had the means and opportunity to do so. Based upon this, I can estimate the likelihood of my waking up tomorrow to find that G-d has turned my shoes into solid gold. May I be surprised? Of course. But will I be surprised? Probably not.
In a given circumstance, it would be nice to have more data to base one’s estimation upon, rather than less. More data (if germane and accurate) would seem to increase the reliability of one’s estimation.steve wrote:
When we turn to the consideration of the likelihood of men perpetrating fraud, we are certainly not on solid ground in saying that any given set of men are more likely to be con artists than to be honest men. There are many con artists, and there are also honest men. In deciding whether a given school of thought is the fruit of fraud or of honest reporting, one must know something about the character of those who are the sources of the foundational claims.
But one does not always have such a luxury. This does not preclude one from making an estimation. Rather, one must make do with what one has – often, working from generic and non-specific bases. If we do not know the specific character of a sample of witnesses, then we must make do with an estimation based upon a more general range of human character.
You are mistaken. A prediction can certainly be made, based upon generic human behavior. This prediction could become more reliable, with the availability of accurate data on Fred Jones. But we do not always have the luxury of additional information; and life is filled with estimates of probability that are made, quite practically, based upon less-than-ideal data.steve wrote:
We might think it likely that the majority of people who attend the Fed Ex employees Christmas party will get drunk there—and we may feel confident of having our predictions materialize. However, if we want to establish the likelihood that Fred Jones, a Fed Ex employee, will get drunk at the party, we would have to consider factors about the man himself. Is he a drinker? Is he habitually moderate? Is he a teetotaler? The prediction of one man's behavior cannot be made upon the basis of statistical analysis of mankind in general.
Will this new brand of soup burn if I leave it unattended and play a hand of Texas Hold’Em online? Will somebody let me borrow their wireless phone if my car breaks down? Will my front door need to be locked when I leave in the morning? Though I may be without specific data, I need not be paralyzed when faced with such questions. Rather, I can attempt a broadly-based estimation, and then hazard onward.
I am not trained in classical logic. But my argument is not unreasonable.steve wrote:
I realize that your whole argument on this thread has been to undermine the credibility of the Christian sources, but the particular argument you made above strayed from that line of inquiry into illogic.
A great extent of human understanding is based upon the expectation that present and future phenomena will follow the pattern of previous phenomena. Is this tool of human reasoning to be considered infallible? No. But generally speaking, it is quite reliable.
Another basic tool of human reasoning is strategy based upon general trend and probability. When the nearby high school lets out at the end of the school day, I may be especially cautious in the resulting traffic. Is this based upon my understanding of particular drivers – say, this gal in a black Jetta, and that guy in an ’83 Chevette? Almost never. But is this reasonable? Yes.
Now, the gal with the Jetta and the guy with the Chevette might object that I am unfairly profiling them. After all, not every teenager is a less competent driver. But my insurance agent would consider my generic caution to be not only reasonable, but commendable.
Once again, you employ the term “gratuitous.” Such an assessment is profoundly in the eye of the beholder, depending in part upon their tolerance for liability. Is it gratuitous to be concerned about x ppm of a substance in a gallon of water? Or y ppm? Or z ppm? Is it gratuitous to be doubtful of a witness with 20/30 vision? Or 20/40 vision? Or 20/60 vision? Different persons may have differing assessments.steve wrote:
As for your seemingly gratuitous persistence in skepticism about the integrity of the gospel stories as they have come down to us, I have also addressed that in a previous post. I think the most you have been able to propose is that Christians do not have adequate evidence (in your estimation) to trust the records. I would counter that no one has sufficient evidence that the gospels misrepresent the essential story of Jesus, so as to allow anyone comfortably to reject their witness.
Now, you have said that “no one has sufficient evidence that the gospels misrepresent the essential story of Jesus, so as to allow anyone comfortably to reject their witness.” It is ridiculous to say this, inasmuch as many persons have comfortably rejected the witness of the gospels, based on the evidence available to them. Their evidence may not seem “sufficient” to you, but your personal sensibilities cannot be extrapolated to include “anyone.” Sufficiency, too, can be profoundly in the eye of the beholder.
Beyond this, the “essential story” purported by the gospels is quite extraordinary to the usual realm of human experience; as such, the natural challenge for many audiences would be to comfortably accept their claims. As I have said before (in a previous discussion of ours), extraordinary claims warrant extraordinary evidence. And hearsay from premodern sources does not compellingly rise to the level of extraordinary evidence.
You may feel that the gospels receive an unusually “rigorous degree of cricticism” at the hands of scholars. On one hand, it would be interesting to know which recent scholarly works you have been reading on other historical figures, so as to inform your opinion on this matter.steve wrote:
After all the evidences have been weighed, it is true that we are left to choose one belief or the other. There is the belief that the gospels give us a substantially historical picture of the life and teachings of Jesus—a belief for which there is considerable evidence of exactly the same kind as we have for many other historical accounts. Then there is the belief that the gospels are mere legends, lacking any very close connection to actual historical events—a belief for which a case can be made only by subjecting them to a more rigorous degree of criticism than scholars are accustomed to applying to other historical claims. Both beliefs can find some justification, but neither can prove its case beyond the shadow of a doubt.
But on the other hand, you should not make the mistake of thinking of the gospels as simply historical documents, for manifestly they are not – they are also religious documents. Even more so than secular historiography, religion is conventionally a province of imagination, interpretation, and invention. It is also a province where subtlety wields extraordinary influence, so that high thresholds of precision become relevant. Accordingly, these documents warrant a rigorous degree of criticism.
I would like to know what kind of evidence would be sufficient in your eyes as “grounds ... for certainty that anything in [the gospels] is false.” In this sort of discussion, there are a thousand ways for a partisan to cavil at a matter that challenges their allegiance.steve wrote:
You obviously delight the study of source materials, but when it comes to the gospels, your belief that they are untrustworthy is a mere intuition. They may seem sketchy to you, but no grounds exist for certainty that anything in them is false.
This touches upon a basic difficulty in our discussion: you approach the evidence with a predisposition in favor of the gospels; as such, you require a (probably unattainable) level of certainty to divest you of your trust in them. You do not approach these documents as an impartial assessor. Indeed, can you honestly say that you approach other religious documents with the same sort of credulous generosity? What grounds are there for “certainty” that other religious witnesses are not substantially true? What shortcomings of theirs cannot be brushed aside as inconsequential details, or as excusable by appeal to genre?
No objective person would approach the gospels with a predisposition in their favor. Why? Because a general survey of human behavior does not recommend their sort of document as reliable. On one hand, even simple eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable – a factor which you perennially disregard. But on another hand, these documents are not merely eyewitness testimony, but religious artifacts; and human religious productivity is rife with imagination and innovation. If one is to approach the gospels with a predisposition, it should be one of caution, not credulity.
But this is a basic crux to our dialogue, and it may be insuperable. Given the general nature of human behavior, I require extraordinary evidence to believe the extraordinary claims of the gospels; and for whatever reasons, you require extraordinary evidence not to believe their extraordinary claims.
I’m willing to address this line of inquiry, but would prefer to do it in another thread, lest it hijack this line of discussion. Let me know which subforum you would like for me to respond in.steve wrote:
What I find perplexing about you, in particular, is that you used to identify yourself as a Christian, and even pastored a Christian congregation. Something obviously influenced you subsequently to apostasize, but nothing you have posted provides sufficient explanation for your actions.
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I am trying to understand the psychology of a man who once believed in Christ, and then defected from him on such a subjective basis.
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Therefore, the decision lies in the individual. What I don't understand is how someone who had previously made a decision in favor of Christ (if that's what you did when you were younger) could, upon so scant evidence against the gospels, choose to become an opponent of Christ (after all, you have suggested, without providing any evidence whatsoever, that Jesus might have deserved capital punishment). I cannot discern what psychological kit guides a man in this direction. I can imagine certain controlling motives to be present, but I will not suggest any, since none of them are flattering. My guess is that you see your motives in the matter very differently than I am able to imagine them. Therefore, I would be interested in hear from you what happened to you and how you perceive your own psychological journey.