The Narrow Path Ministries

Box A only: 0

Both boxes: 0

You have been chosen to participate in a psychological experiment. You are going to be paid well. First you enter a room which contains a complex computer. You are seated in a chair in front of it, while the operator places electrodes on your head. These electrodes transmit brain waves into the computer.

The operator goes into the adjoining room and returns. Then you are taken into that room where there is a table on which are two boxes labelled "A" and "B". You are told that you may open either Box A, and keep the money which is in that box, or you may open both boxes and keep the money from both boxes.

You are also given the following true information before making your choice. The operator has gotten a prediction from the computer after your brain waves were analyzed. If the computer predicted that you would open both boxes, then the operator placed a hundred dollars in Box A, and a hundred dollars Box B. But if the computer predicted that you would open only Box A, then the operator placed ten thousand dollars in Box A and nothing in Box B. The experiment has already been done with 500 other people, and the computer predicted correctly what the participant chose in all 500 cases.

What will you choose? Both boxes, or Box A alone?

Please relate you choice. It would be great if you explained why you made that choice. But first copy the "counter" from the top of this post to the top of your post, and change the number from zero to one for whatever choice you made. Subsequent choice should add one to the previous number beside the choice which you made.

Box A only: 0

Both boxes: 1

Unless I'm missing something here, by opening both boxes I get either $200 or $10,000; but by opening only box A, depending on the computer, I get either $100 or $10,000. If the computer was right about me opening both boxes I get $200. If the computer was wrong and thought I'd only open box A, I get $10,000 plus the added bonus of being the first person whose brain befuddled the machine. If I choose only box A, but the computer wrongly thought I'd pick both boxes, I only get $100 - the worst outcome, so why risk it?

Box A only: 0

Both boxes: 1

neither box: 1

$10,000?!

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
I suspect a scam.
I am also deeply suspicious about the real purpose of those electrodes.
I run out of the room. I wonder if the computer predicted that?

Of course, if I knew it was all legit...I would choose box A only.
Why risk $10000 for the sake of an extra 100?

I also suspect Paidion is setting us up with a trick question, but I can't work it out.

I'll bet you my $200 to your $10,000 that it has something to do with the truth value in the present of future predicted events.

Box A only: 1

Both boxes: 1

neither box: 1

Box A - it sounds like the computer has a good track record predicting people's choices, so I should have a good chance at the jackpot. And if not, it's only a $100 loss. I'm assuming the computer can check who would go ahead and open both anyway, and who would actually just do the one, so I'm opening the one.

But for some reason I suspect that there's going to be a twist in all this.

Box A only: 2

Both boxes: 1

neither box: 1


Box A. Before I even read the bit about the money swapping, I suspected a trick for the persons opening both boxes. I'm generally a pretty timid risk taker .

Box A only: 2

Both boxes: 2

neither box: 1

Michelle wrote:Box A only: 0

Both boxes: 1

Unless I'm missing something here, by opening both boxes I get either $200 or $10,000; but by opening only box A, depending on the computer, I get either $100 or $10,000. If the computer was right about me opening both boxes I get $200. If the computer was wrong and thought I'd only open box A, I get $10,000 plus the added bonus of being the first person whose brain befuddled the machine. If I choose only box A, but the computer wrongly thought I'd pick both boxes, I only get $100 - the worst outcome, so why risk it?

I'm going with Michelle on this one. Since the computer has already made it's prediction, which I'm now privy to, I know what's in each box.

Michelle wrote:I'll bet you my $200 to your $10,000 that it has something to do with the truth value in the present of future predicted events.

I think you got it right here as well Michelle.....and that's my prediction.

Box A only: 3
Both boxes:2

I thank everyone who has participated in this experiment!

Your choice is to be based on the fact that "it's all legit", and so for that reason I have transferred Suzana's answer to "Box A only" as she indicated that that would be her choice if it were "all legit".

I heard about this in 1966 or 1967 during a philosophy class at the University of Manitoba.
This question had been given to hundreds of students. As it turned out, those students were pretty well split right down the middle. But whichever choice a person made, it was found that that person seemed totally adamant that he or she had made the rational choice, and that anyone who made the other choice made an irrational choice.

I was curious as to how you feel about the choice you made. Do you feel 100% convinced that your choice was rational, and that the other choice is irrational? I am thinking that there must be some sort of human psychology which divides people so nearly equally into two groups.

I am hoping for a few more participants. Then I will reveal my purpose in asking your participation. When it seems that no one else is going to reply, then I will cast my own vote, and explain why I voted that way.

Paidion, without revealing your choice before hand, nor your reasons for your choice, will you at least say whether or not you believe your choice is the only rational choice? I'm not sure whether I'm adamant about mine being the only rational one...

Box A only: 3

Both Boxes : 3
Paidion's original post is quoted so I can keep record of the instructions.
My explanation for my choice is below the quote.

Paidion wrote:Box A only: 0

Both boxes: 0

You have been chosen to participate in a psychological experiment. You are going to be paid well. First you enter a room which contains a complex computer. You are seated in a chair in front of it, while the operator places electrodes on your head. These electrodes transmit brain waves into the computer.

The operator goes into the adjoining room and returns. Then you are taken into that room where there is a table on which are two boxes labelled "A" and "B". You are told that you may open either Box A, and keep the money which is in that box, or you may open both boxes and keep the money from both boxes.

You are also given the following true information before making your choice. The operator has gotten a prediction from the computer after your brain waves were analyzed. If the computer predicted that you would open both boxes, then the operator placed a hundred dollars in Box A, and a hundred dollars Box B. But if the computer predicted that you would open only Box A, then the operator placed ten thousand dollars in Box A and nothing in Box B. The experiment has already been done with 500 other people, and the computer predicted correctly what the participant chose in all 500 cases.

What will you choose? Both boxes, or Box A alone?

Please relate you choice. It would be great if you explained why you made that choice. But first copy the "counter" from the top of this post to the top of your post, and change the number from zero to one for whatever choice you made. Subsequent choice should add one to the previous number beside the choice which you made.

I think it is important to consider what prediction the computer chose. In my case, I think I'm "wired" to open both boxes (because based on my past behaviors, I conclude that I am quite naturally a very curious person). The computer probably took one "look" at my brain and determined that I would want to open both boxes.

I'm going to choose to go along with my natural curiousity and choose both boxes. If I am right about the computer's prediction, then I get $100 from box A and $100 from box B.

If the computer wrongly predicted that I "would only (want to) open Box A," then I would get the $10,000 from box A. With that kinda money, who cares that Box B is empty!